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From an Approach standpoint, Bay Hill offers a different test on second shots than were used to seeing week to week on the PGA TOUR. Harman ranks 21st in this field over the last 24 rounds on hard courses with long rough. It's important to note that these distances are just averages and may vary depending on your swing, skill level, and other factors. That changes this year, however, with the Arnold Palmer Invitational now a Designated Event with a higher purse and expectations for all top players to appear. Big Sky Tournament Odds: Is Two-Seed Montana State The Rightful Favorite? With that said, there is no set formula to find success at Bay Hill, but prior success in demanding conditions tend to be the best indicator. Unfortunately for our purposes, this is the first time that Patrick Cantlay will be playing in this event. Time: 2:30-5:30 p.m. All of a sudden, a 500-yard hole may play more like 440 yards, putting it squarely into a par 4. Let the right arm straighten in the downswing. It is also worth noting that he is No. Rose has worked as a print and online journalist for more than 20 years. 2. Ten feet farther from the hole on 72 approach shots is an enormous difference. Narrow fairways and tight doglegs make the course extremely challenging. From a leaderboard overlap standpoint, Quail Hollow and Augusta National would have to be up there. Fun fact, it will host the Olympic Mens Golf competition in 2028. Its broken out by projected pricing/odds tier for Draft Kings. 1 spot in my model this week. Paul Casey won the 2019 Valspar Championship by one stroke on a tough Innisbrook Copperhead course. He has the short game to go along with it too, ranking 19th on Tour for Scrambling and 78th in SG Putting. Pga Tour Proximity To Hole 100 Yards July 5, 2020by Adam Zapel The Professional Golf Association(PGA) is a non-profit professional sport organization, which is administered by the Professional Golfers Association. Critics say new PGA Tour events copy LIV. The No. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. I was making an appearance on SportsGrid Radio last Sunday night, recapping the Honda Classic and looking ahead to Bay Hill. There are few certainties in golf betting, but Matsuyamas odds slipping to an unjustifiable range of the board is one of them. Its been the opposite for Zalatoris since returning from injury, however, as hes shot his best round of the tournament on Sunday each time hes played four rounds in 2023. If you want to bet on Tiger for the novelty of it, there is a non-zero chance he finds his way into the weekend through his short game alone. This year, the world will be watching as he prepares to make a surprise return, his first PGA TOUR start since The Open in July 2022. There are 11 players in this field who have delivered multiple T10 finishes over the last five years: McIlroy, Hatton, Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley, Keith Mitchell, Corey Conners, and Luke List. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. So just as the Homa in California trend continues to pay dividends, Zalatoris in difficult conditions is one of the most reliable narratives in professional golf to go back to. The best way to find out is to hit about 50 balls with each club. Scott has not missed a cut since the PGA Championship in May 2022, and has four top-6 finishes over his last nine starts. No, he is not a tout. Proximity to Hole from < 10 yards | PGA TOUR Stats To watch in a smaller size, scroll down while your video is playing. In any case, its still a PGA TOUR event, and SG: APP still reigns supreme. This week however, it looks like it is back to normal for least a couple of the four days. He ranked second in strokes gained/putting and made 407 feet of. McIlroywas on my betting card at 25-1 in Genesis Invitational odds last year and was my One And Done selection as well. But, I think this event is really a testament to players who are well-rounded across a number of specific distance and short game-oriented categories. First hole: The easiest par-5 on TOUR, playing 500 yards downhill, Sixth hole: 200-yard par-3 with a two-tiered green featuring a bunker right in the center, 10th hole: One of the shortest yet most challenging risk-reward par-4s on TOUR, 15th hole: A narrow dogleg right, which recently inspired a trend of players playing down the neighboring 17th hole fairway instead, Bogey Avoidance (Comp, Difficult Conditions). Open rough-length as the players see all season outside of the major championships. Like TPC Scottsdale, Augusta National, and Harbour Town, Bay Hill is another course in which we see course form repeat itself over time, meaning players that have done well here in the past, tend to continually do so. TPC Southwind, site of his maiden victory is not a perfect comp for Bay Hill, but his performance on similar Bermuda greens is one that should translate. The hole plays 14 yards longer than the difficult par-4 12th hole and features the same scoring average of 4.3. That means Arnold Palmer Invitational odds will include most of the best players in the world. Matsuyama has six top-20 finishes over the last two years between The Farmers, The Masters, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and U.S. Open at The Country Club. Cantlay ranks 5th on Tour in Total Driving, being both long and accurate. Its hardif not impossibleto win with poor putting and even worse approach shots. The King, Arnold Palmer, took over the controls on this event in 1979, moving it to Bay Hill, the club he purchased in 1976. Nine of the Top 10 players in the OWGR are present, 23 of the Top 25 and 44 of the Top 50 players in the world rankings are scheduled to tee it up this Thursday. Example: You hit your 5-iron 150 yards. I have a hard time picturing players like Homa, Cantlay, Thomas, and Morikawa priced longer than Zalatoris, which means Zal should open around 25-1. Dustin Johnson tied for 51st among 186 players in scoring average at 70.46 shots per round. So, Sand Saves will be an important stat to track this week. After that, Im looking at a balanced mix of SG: ARG, SG: P (Poa, 5-10 ft), Scrambling, Sand Saves, Par-4: 450-500 and Par-5 Scoring. The. Matsuyama ranks No. Go to the range and map out your 50%-100% distances with every club. That has been proven here at Bay Hill with four visits to this tournament and finishes of 21st, 20th, 3rd, and 3rd. In the two areas we pinpointed earlier, Im is 12th on Tour in Proximity to the Hole from 200+ yards and 7th in Par 5 Scoring. Last year, the proximity buckets that ranked above TOUR average were 150-175 yards, 175-200 yards, and 200 yard plus. As a PGA Tour Professional, you would assume that the yardages would again be perfect and they're close, with an average of 150.8 yards. My advice to Frank Nobilo is to ignore proximity and use SG approach instead to silence the critics. PGA DFS Delivery: Arnold Palmer Invitational. All three are strong fits for the course with proven past results and are expected to be the favorites when odds are released on Monday. There is a long list of 18 players who have avoided missing the cut over the last five years (minimum three appearances): McIlroy, Kirk, Im, Hatton, Bradley, Bezuidenhout, Mitchell, Homa, Matsuyama, Fowler, An, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Rodgers, Harris English, Zach Johnson, Brendon Todd, and Beau Hossler. 70-90 yards. His price is a little shorter than I expected but I took the plunge anyway. Putting is usually a concern for Matsuyama backers, but on Poa greens, he is actually a positive putter over the course of his career. Im sure in Tigers mind he believes he can take care of that unfinished business at age 47. And, like Novak, he's doing it nicely. PGA TOUR - European Tour - 4 Most Recent Majors - Champions Tour - LPGA - Korn Ferry - Custom Performance Analysis Where Winners Come From - examine position of tournament winners per round - by player or tournament Prior Tournaments - analyize previous 4 Weeks on tour and at this weeks tournament. The average distance for a pitching wedge is 130 to 135 yards; for a sand wedge 115 to 120 yards; and for lob wedges 75 to 95 yards. Adam Woodard. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has seen shorter-priced players win, however, in recent history, and I believe that speaks to how demanding the golf course is and the often very challenging weather that comes into play. Latest Pre-Live FanDuel Massachusetts Promo: $100 Instantly. Rivieras greens are known to be among the trickiest on the PGA TOUR to hole putts on from short range, so Ill be looking to dial in on those who are most comfortable on the crucial 5-10 footers. Cantlay challenged Rahm at the Genesis and here we are getting better than three times what the price is on Jon Rahm this week. This is a huge week forGood Drives Gained. Although that list spans drastically different profiles of players, there is a prevailing trend of veterans whove proven consistent in difficult scoring conditions. Those at the top of Genesis Invitational odds boards rarely prove able to close the door at this event. All of those factors come under the assumption that play occurs on a calm day, which were not always promised. From year 2000 to 2019, 17 of the 20 winning scores at Bay Hill were in double-digits, 7 of which were at -15 or better. 1 in Bogey Avoidance in comp conditions and Comp Course History. Driver a long way, typically in the 290-yard range Nicklaus led the Tour in driving is., this course ranked as the ninth-hardest course on pga tour proximity to hole 50 yards PGA Tour average to. Market forecast and expert KPIs for 600+ segments in 150+ countries . Rory must have a flair for Invitationals, as if theres an event hes proven more consistency at than the Genesis, it is assuredly the Arnold Palmer Invitational. On Tour, Jason Day ranks 11th in Total Driving his accuracy has greatly improved, hes 33rd in Greens in Regulation, and 4th in Scrambling. So how did Casey do it? PGA Tour players of the early 21st century unquestionably hit the ball farther than throughout the 20th century. The Average Spin Rates, Launch Angle & Ball Speed for Golf. The top-10 players in SG: T2G (Difficult Scoring Conditions) are Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, and Patrick Cantlay. Another Method: Use Average 5-Iron Distance. According the Leaderboard website, PGA Tour players' average 4-iron shots travel 210 to 220 yards (including the roll). PGA Tour player approach shots: 100-125 yards GIR: 74.59% Proximity from the fairway: 20'0 Proximity from the rough: 30'3 PGA Tour player approach shots: 150-175 yards GIR: 63.95% On paper, its a perfect fit for Rahm who can lean on all his ball-striking strengths and long-iron prowess to generate amble scoring opportunities at Bay Hill. PGA TOUR on Twitter: ". The creators of the original The Golf Club, HB Studios, has partnered with 2K Studios and the PGA league to produce PGA Tour 2K21, the first installment of a series that will hopefully last for years to come.The game was released on August 21st, 2020. With a player recovering from injury, such as Tiger Woods for example, its fair to expect play to get worse over four rounds as fatigue sets in. Theres also been a steady trend of international players finding success here, suggesting an advantage for those who are comfortable in conditions more exposed to the elements. While recent form is always important, this is one of the weeks Ill be leaning more heavily on a mixed condition model to simulate performance in other comparable conditions. Thanks for reading and good luck navigating 2023 Genesis Invitational odds! Over 14 career appearances, Scott missed just one cut to go along with eight top-11 finishes, including three over the last four years. Played many 450 yard par 4 holes. Bet on any golfer below by clicking on the odds in the table. Sensible results follow from sensible calculations. With narrow fairways, below-average driving distance, and some of the thickest rough on TOUR, were going to see plenty of long iron approaches out of thick rough. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). At 7,322 yards and par-71, Riviera's distance doesn't jump off the page. GOLF.com and GOLF Magazine are published by EB GOLF MEDIA LLC, a division of 8AM GOLF. This will be our last stop on the West Coast swing, so its worth revisiting the Poa specialists: Homa, Rahm, Rodgers, Kuchar, Taylor, Scott, Peter Malnati, Wyndham Clark, Webb Simpson, and Justin Suh. 10 players rank above-average in each of this weeks top-10 correlated stats with success at Riviera CC. Former FedEx Cup champ a great long-shot bet at Bay Hill: 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, Love transfusion cocktails? 1 on Tour in Par 4 Scoring and 2nd in Par 5 Scoring. Any wayward drives into the trees are essentially an automatic bogey. The course ranks in the top five for most missed putts both inside and outside 15 feet. The iconic Riviera Country Club was once my favorite course to play on EA Sports Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 07. On average a professional golfer on the PGA Tour or LPGA Tour will hit pitching wedges an average distance of 130-150 yards. With that said, there are still plenty of signals to draw from other long and difficult comp conditions. Quail Hollow would seem to be the best place to start when looking for comps to Bay Hill. Willy Z was the first name I threw out as someone I thought could be your winner here this week. Between Scrambling, SG: Around The Green, and Sand Saves, Im looking to build around players who possess an imaginative, pressure-tested short game to find success on this course. The stretching 7,466 yard, Par 72 features a set of tough par-4s, plus 3 of the par-5s measure over 555 yards. About one-third of approaches will come from beyond 200 yards, and a significant 70% of approaches will come from over 150 yards. Hitting the Green From 200 Yards. 1 in the field in terms of SG: T2G in comp conditions. The 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational follows the Sentry Tournament of Champions, WM Phoenix Open, and Genesis Invitational as the fourth Designated, Elevated event of the season, and third over the last four weeks. Hell be on my betting card assuming his odds surpass 35-1. The average PGA Tour pitching wedge shot carried 122 yards. Bay Hill is a long par-72 course, measuring nearly 7,500 yards. To receive GOLFs all-new newsletters,subscribe for free here. In recent years, weve also seen the Genesis Invitational serve as a stage for young and burgeoning stars like Homa, Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Young, and Sam Burns. But a T4 finish at the Genesis Invitational last we saw him should now quell any remaining speculation as to whether hes healthy enough to contend again. In any case, the field is still stacked without him, and the Elevated events have not disappointed yet, so we should be in store for another captivating week of high-level golf. After Scott, the rest of the top 10 in Event History includes: McIlroy, Rahm, Homa, Xander Schauffele, Luke Donald, Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Aaron Baddeley, and Hideki Matsuyama. We are in the teeth of the grinder stretch on the PGA TOUR. Right now, the forecast is calling for calm conditions on Thursday and Sunday but Friday and Saturday could blow well over 20 mph. Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Keith Mitchell, Viktor Hovland, Gary Woodland, Bryson DeChambeau, and Luke List have all proven the strong correlation between both courses. The median driving distance average on the PGA Tour in 2011 was 282 yards. The Twitter handle is a joke. Outside of Majors, this is poised to be the strongest field in golf this year. You cant simply cross players off from contending if they are below average in Distance, Approach, or Putting. There are just 11 players who fit that criteria: Jon Rahm, Sungjae Im, Max Homa, Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Sahith Theegala, Brian Harman, Erik Barnes, Chris Kirk, and Billy Horschel. The top-10 players in SG: APP entering this week are Tom Hoge, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Tom Kim, Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Mark Hubbard, and Shane Lowry. He said he didn't think adding . We hate touts. Its a compelling converging of the games best in one place, as Rahm is undoubtedly the best golfer in the world at the moment, McIlroy is a past winner of the event with dominant course history, and Scheffler is your defending champion, spring-boarding himself into the conversation among golfs elite after his 2022 victory. At Riviera CC, Im defining Comp Conditions as layouts that also feature narrow fairways, penal rough, and difficult all-around scoring. 16 players avoided missing the cut at the Genesis Invitational over the last five years (min. Eliminate the longest five and the shortest five, and then figure out the middle of the remaining group. Many players say they hit their seven iron 150 yards when in reality, it's 145 or 155. But the ideal player for Riviera CC should have total driving be a strength of their game. Will Zalatoris in difficult conditions. It would be clich to say that no course compares to Riviera CC, but I do struggle to find an exact match. For bettors sake, youll find better value looking anywhere else on the outright board. PGA Tour Victories: 16 Know your distances Looking at the charts can be intimidating. A true all-around test from tee-to-green is fairly rare on the PGA TOUR schedule outside of the Majors. Ball back in your stance will get you steep. (These players ranked 2nd, 1st, and 9th in SG approach, adjusted.) Matsuyama ranks top 10 in Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Scoring Conditions), Comp Course History, SG: ARG, Scrambling, Sand Saves, and SG: P (5-10 feet). He ranks 35th in this field for SG Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds and 40th in SG Off the Tee. They can hit 5-iron shots 195 to 205 yards; 6-iron shots 180 to 190 yards; 7-iron shots 165 to 180 yards; 8-iron shots 150 to 170 yards; and 9-iron shots 140 to 155 yards. As is normally the case when we get to a difficult golf course that tests all-around game, the markers of success at Bay Hill do not vary drastically from what it takes to succeed across all PGA TOUR courses. Having an accurate idea of your average distance for each of your clubs is extremely important. Another week, another elevated event! Also similar to PGA National, heavy Florida winds factor in. Top 10 Finished | Scoring Average | Greens Percentage | Scrambling In round 4 on the par-5 12th, Furyk hit his third shot from 101 yards in the fairway to a cozy eight feet from the hole. If you look at the pre-tournament odds of the last seven winners at Bay Hill, you will find that long shots are few and far between: Scottie Scheffler (16-1), Bryson DeChambeau (12-1), Tyrrell Hatton (55-1), Francesco Molinari (33-1), Rory McIlroy (20-1), Marc Leishman (100-1), Jason Day (14-1). With the usual Riviera stalwarts of Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson absent this year, the Course Horse honors are instead bestowed onto Adam Scott. Top 100 Courses in the U.S.: GOLFs all-new 2022-23 ranking is here! Scrambling GainedandSG: Short Gamemake the biggest jump compared to TOUR average, each falling inside the top 10. Unfortunately, his odds are likely to open at about one-third of his 2022 price, so its hard to imagine McIlroy will end up on my betting card again this year. If theres room for hope for the field against this dominant force, Bermuda is the surface which Rahm has had the most trouble with over his career. Theres a particularly notable overlap from the three lefties in Watson, Mickelson, and Weir. Historical Tournament Stats Comprehensive statistical breakdown of past PGA Tour tournaments. Brian Harman is the 24th ranked player in the world yet is priced more than 3.5 times longer than 35-1. ET) TV Network: Golf Channel. A recipient of the Arnold Palmer scholarship at Wake Forest University, there are some ties to The King for Willy Z. Missouri Valley Touranment Odds: Which Veteran-Laden Team Prevails? The Arnold Palmer Invitational has caused the highest percentage of penalty strokes in three of the last four years. Patrick Cantlay (-125) over Justin Thomas, GOLF.com and GOLF Magazine are published by EB GOLF MEDIA LLC, a division of 8AM GOLF, Arnold Palmer Invitational betting guide: 8 picks our expert loves at Bay Hill. Since winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship last August, his health has gone into question, so Ive been hesitant to back him in 2023 until we see signs of a full recovery. In addition to Scheffler and McIlroy, the list of other Arnold Palmer Invitational past champions returning to the field this week includes Tyrrell Hatton, Francesco Molinari, Jason Day, and Martin Laird.